The Roaring 2020s: A Decade of Unprecedented Innovation, Revolution, and Disruptions?
Are we on the cusp of another roaring 20s? Is it the beginning of a global economic boom now that the pandemic is over? Or are we staring at another “once-in-a-lifetime” recession in just two decades? We’ll explore these questions against the broader context of technology and global economic changes.
The human brain is wired to seek patterns in information that come its way. This pattern-seeking tendency allows CEOs to identify emerging business trends and the average Joe to see conspiracy theories where none exist. In other words, sometimes, patterns are real, and some other times, they aren’t. With that in context, entrepreneurs, business leaders, and economists alike are drawing strong parallels between the 1920s and the 2020s.
A century ago, a global pandemic that killed 5% of the world’s population was dwindling; industrial economies were experiencing exuberant activity; new tech like radio was being hijacked into mass social manipulation tool for selling products and services. Fast forward 100 years, and it appears that the same script is being played out today.
Here’s how the macroeconomic forces, socio-political developments, and technological advances are changing the world today.
The Invisible Customer and the Rise of Personalization
The digital revolution and ensuing unfettered data collection have allowed businesses to collect a vast amount of information on their customers and even identify them personally in many cases. Although this capability has allowed them to target their customers and sell their offerings more effectively, it has long been considered an invasion of consumer privacy. Fortunately, laws like GDPR in the EU and CCPA in California are limiting the ability of organizations to collect and use data. However, these laws come at a critical juncture when personalization takes over consumerism.
Over 91% of consumers are more likely to shop from a brand that personalizes its communication, products, and offers to them. The modern consumer has grown out of mass communications. Indeed, a staggering 84% of them want to be treated like a human being and not a number. In other words, consumers want businesses to know them, understand them, and tailor their offerings to suit them.
At the outset, it may appear that laws like GDPR are counterproductive to the goals of personalization, but technological advances are creating room for both of these opposing forces to coexist. Who said there might not be a new loyalty club or community to target that did not link with your multichannel commerce strategy? Or will it link in there over time?
Zero-Knowledge Proofs
Although zero-knowledge proof as a concept has existed for four decades now, it became relevant, practical, and scalable only recently.
Zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) allow consumers and businesses to verify a certain piece of information without disclosing the information itself. For instance, a consumer can use ZKP to prove that she owns the annual subscription for a SaaS service without disclosing their email, phone number, name, or another personally identifiable piece of data. Likewise, account holders can prove to financial services providers, such as insurance companies, that they qualify for specific services using ZKPs. Travelers can prove to immigration control that they’re citizens of a country without disclosing too much info like name, address, biometrics, and so on.
Such innovations allow businesses to customize their products, services and offers to their customers without collecting information that consumers consider too sensitive.
What’s interesting is that blockchain projects like Mina (MINA), Zcash (ZEC), and Loopring (PRC) are making ZKP highly scalable and making it available on a global level. Consumers, businesses, and governments alike can use them in a variety of contexts to verify information about each other.
While world governments are already utilizing digital identities to seamlessly verify identities, the advent of ZKP will compel both businesses and governments to adopt it, either proactively or under pressure from their patrons.
The Case of a Digital-native Identity
The term ‘digital native’ describes people who grew up with digital technologies and consider them an integral and necessary part of their lives. The lines between physical and virtual worlds do not exist for them. They assign their virtual lives as much importance as their physical lives. In fact, digital natives are now building completely virtual lives independent of their physical lives. For instance, they are now investing in NFTs that complement the virtual identity they’re building. These include digital art NFTs, sports memorabilia NFTs, fashion NFTs, collectible NFTs, music NFTs, NFTs of real-world assets, and so on.
These developments have the potential to initiate seismic shifts in how people consume high-end products. Most physical product businesses have already partially detached themselves from their products by outsourcing manufacturing. Companies like Apple primarily take care of branding, marketing, and product design, while their outsourcing partners manufacture the product. But, with NFTs, they can finally eliminate the product from their business operations. This does not mean that they’ll eliminate their physical products altogether. Instead, they’ll be shaving off the production and supply costs on every product NFT they sell. The controls of the brand, product, and designs though — — we will see if more cases go in the direction with the decision/power going to the big brand, such as Hermes in the recent case.
Additionally, with the product finally out of the way, businesses would be able to sell NFTs to customers worldwide. Local product certifications, permits, quality control requirements, and other limitations will not prevent organizations from doing business with customers in a country.
Interactions Between Tech Disruptions and Macroeconomic Challenges Will Shape the Future
Just like radio and cars changed the lifestyles of an entire generation a century ago, emerging tech like AI and web3 are changing our way of life today. ChatGPT is threatening Google Search’s decades-old dominance; Midjourney’s artwork is winning competitions; Jasper is threatening the livelihood of creative writers. There are no two ways about it — AI is here, and it’s already changing the world.
These innovations come when most industries are still recovering from the aftereffects of the pandemic’s supply chain disruptions. Even now, they’re adapting to the challenges created by the Russia-Ukraine war. Here are the forces in action:
1. Threat of Recession
The world is heading towards an unprecedented recession in 2023–24. Businesses would fight for survival and do everything they can to cut costs. Emerging tech can help them drastically improve productivity, cut costs, and improve their profitability.
2. Systemic Mistrust
People have lost their trust in established structures, whether it’s governments, organizations, or supply chains. The Great Resignation and anti-vax movements are some examples of this growing trend. Even brand loyalty has taken a hit due to supply chain issues.
3. Plummeting Economic Productivity
While work-from-home brought increased convenience and better work-life balance to people’s lives, it appears to have affected the remote workforce’s ability to innovate and be productive. This is caused, at least in part, due to organizations continuing to use processes and practices that are adapted directly from physical workplaces. A paradigm shift is needed in organizational processes to enable a remote workforce to realize its full potential.
4. Sustainability Will Become Even More Important
Consumers are not only willing to change their consumption habits to engage with sustainable brands but also ready to spread more for their products. Even as industries shrink and revenues drop, brands embracing sustainability across their supply chains will likely win over more customers from their competition.
5. Talent Shortage
Rapid advancements in technology have given birth to a unique challenge — a shortage of specialized talent. Combined with The Great Recession, organizations have an excruciating time filling their job roles. The best talent is negotiating better salaries and a more flexible work environment. Organizations are being squeezed by unforgiving market conditions on one side and an empowered workforce on the other.
Business leaders are looking for creative employment to hire the best talent without hiring full-time employees.
6. Emerging Technologies
Besides AI and Web3 technologies, a slew of innovations will definitively change the future in 2023. These include advancements in DNA editing, quantum computing, robotics, digital twins, super apps, and so on.
Final Thoughts
The roaring 20s of the twentieth century ended with the stock market crash of 1929, which triggered the biggest recession in history until then. However, the current stakeholders — governments, corporations, and citizens — have access to a wealth of tools, technologies, and other resources that their previous generations did not. The chances of a similar calamitic event repeating are slim. “Slim” being the keyword here.
— Christina shares candid insights and ideas based on her work, network and passion for mobile, payments and commerce. She focuses on the latest innovations from products and growth to people during the day while teaching students and mentoring entrepreneurs at night. Connect with her on LinkedIn or Twitter. All views are my own. —
